Nuclear unclear

- Ritvvij Parrikh

This topic investigates the nuclear environment in the 21st century....
- the International and the Indian perspective
- the Indo-US Nuclear Deal
- Indian Nuclear Future
- Israeli Nuclear Program
- The Nuclear Blacksheep - Iran & North Korea
& many other topics

Historically Speaking...
The nuclear 5 - US, Russia, China, UK & France are the world's defacto nuclear weapons states [NWS] as accepted by the world. Later, with the realization of how dangerous the world can get with more nations possessing nuclear know-how, Finland & Ireland proposed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty which was signed by 189 countries except India, Pakistan, Israel & North Korea .

Three nations - India, Pakistan and Israel have declined to sign the NPT. India openly tested it nuclear weapons capability in 1974, followed by a second test as late as 1998. Pakistan also followed suit in 1998. India, with its distinctive 'No First Use' policy will not use its nukes unless of course attacked by nuclear weapons. Israel all these years refused to either confirm or deny existence of a nuclear weapons production site at Dimona in Negev.

Rouges States; namely Libya, Iran & North Korea - all signatories of the NPT secretly started weapons grade enrichment of uranium. NK test detonated its nuke in 2006 - leaving the world concerned. Whereas Libya aided by the Pakistani A.Q. Khan network had a nuclear program of its own too.

South Africa distinctly stands as one country which had a nuclear weapons program of its own & voluntarily gave it up after signing the NPT.

It is also said that several former Soviet Republics which inherited nukes from the former USSR either transfered them to Russia or destroyed their reserves.

China in the 1970s & later during 1990s openly sent nuclear technology to Pakistan. Pakistan on its side proliferated it further to Libya & North Korea. North Korea on its part, gave long range ballistic capability to Pakistan. All of it in 1 simple term called as the Dr. Abdul Quadeer Khan's proliferation ring. And yes all this under the NPT!! Japan sits on a large stockpile of enriched fissle material, one step away from weaponization and South Korea allegedly has had a weapons program for decades. And yes all this under the NPT!!

Leave apart these nations, other nations simply opened up their civilian nuclear sites to inspection in exchange for open access to the world's best nuclear technology for peacefull use. The 44 member Nuclear Suppliers Group, openly exports nuclear reactors, uranium fuel and other dual use technology to other signatories for peaceful energy usage... in short its a closed group that controls the world's nuclear commerce.

India & its nuclear imperatives
With the oil prices rising more than double over the last few years - which forms more than 70% of import costs to the country, the Kyoto Protocol getting stricter about carbon emissions, increasing energy demands to sustain India's dream economic run, India's dwindling uranium reserves - all together factor in for India's need to sign the Indo-US Nuclear Deal.

United States on the other hand, would only profit from having a stable, responsible democratic country with a strong economic growth sitting over a stock pile of nuclear weapons controlled by a democratically elected government voted by 1/6 of humanity. There is no threat of this country being over run by communists or terrorists taking over nuclear arsenal or military general's over running the government. With the US supremacy under threat from communist China outgrowing itself at an unprecedented rate, global terrorism phenomenon, and increasing world wide US opposition... the US doesnt have many options but to go in for new stable stable relations.

India sits on 31% of the world's thorium reserves but lacks the technical know-how to cash in. In the longer run, India would be able to develop the technical know how for the same but when is still a question. US on the other hand, wants India to grow larger and stronger but also would like to bind India as closely as possible in the global non-proliferation regime.

Though what is ironic and hilarious to some extent is that this civilian nuclear engagement which started under the Vajpayee-Clinton era is now being opposed by the same party which started the engagement as the Congress led government completed the leap started by BJP. Operational domestic political hiccups aside, India should go ahead with the deal.

Yes yes... it will be a costly, complex and unwanted divorse of Indian military nuclear facilities, research and civilian energy, medicine & matetials based nuclear usage & research. But its in the best interest of the country.

India missed the manufacturing bus in the 1980s, which it still repents... Should India miss the Nuclear bus too?

But there is one small question that still misses the common Indian intellect? India for over 30-40 years has independently, indigenously managed and developed the Indian nuclear capability. The Indian Nuclear Scientific Community has mastered the complete nuclear life cycle, developed new breed of reactors, etc - then why cant the Indian Nuclear Scientific Community still keep supporting the country's nuclear needs. Guys...!!! We can have th reactors - but we need fuel to run the reactors. Our nuclear industry isnt large enough to build reactors at a rate needed to support the country's growing energy needs. We also would love to be part of the International Thermo Nuclear Research Project - the technology if proved feasible would revolutionize the way nuclear energy is generated. Yes! we can grow alone, but we can grow faster together.

India, Nukes and the Military

So will the deal affect the Indian Military Needs? NO! India already has enough stock pile of nuclear weapons as minimum deterrence. Further spending on nuclear weapons stock piling isnt exactly necessary. After all how much difference does it make, if India has 30 nuclear warheads against 200 nuclear warheads. What are the chances of a nuclear war starting off today? Not to mention, how much did our national security and deterrences increase after the nuclearisation? We faced war immediately within a year after detonating THE BOMB. Our neighbors never disappoint us. We are not living in times of world wars, are we? Today, we face faceless enemies in form of terrorists which do not have a state or defined facilities that need to be nuked.

What is the probability of the warheads not reaching their targets, resulting in wasted nukes? V less... India's Mirages, MIG 23s, MIG 27s, Sukhoi MKI-30s, Jaguars, Prithvi missile, AGNI I, AGNI II, AGNI III ballistic range, increased submarine fleet... ensures that it reaches. In the last few years, if we study the Indian Army's purchases and tenders floating, we see a distinct feature. On one hand, India is rapidly upgrading its nuclear delivery platforms with purchases of new aircraft, development of new & longer range missiles, submarines, etc. And on the other hand, India is investing heavily in EARLY WARNINGS capability to detect incoming missile and aircraft and air defense capability to shoot down them. We have purchases like the PHALCON radars, Arrow Air defense systems, Green Pine radars, S-300 networks etc. coming through.

In short, the military is slowly but surefootedl ensuring its needs.While the journalists & opposition leaders might fancy the deal to be anti-Indian , etc, etc... it is good fodder for a nice debate and journalism but reality isnt that argumentative. It's clear and direct. The way the purchases are heading, it seems the Indian Military would have cleared the deal and only after that the government went in for it.